Stanbic IBTC has cautioned that external factors, such as oil price volatility and global political uncertainty. Could disrupt Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026, despite improvements in the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals.
This warning came from a team of investment analysts at Stanbic IBTC Asset Management Limited. Led by Mr. Abdul Azeez, during a virtual review of Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook titled “Nigeria 2026 Economic Outlook.” The event, held on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, was monitored by Nairametrics.
The analysts projected modest growth and a gradual decline in inflation. But emphasizs that Nigeria’s recovery remains highly vulnerable to external shocks and the continuity of key policies.
They highlighted that while domestic reforms are starting to deliver measurable progress. The long-term stability of Nigeria’s economy will depend on oil market trends, fiscal discipline. And the sustainability of structural reforms beyond the current political cycle.
Key Insights from the Analysts:
- Cautious Optimism: Abdul Azeez noted that Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook is cautiously positive but faces significant risks from external factors. These include oil price fluctuations, global political developments, and uncertainties around reform continuity.
- Growth Drivers and Risks: The economic momentum seen in 2025, driven by diversification and reforms, is expected to continue. However, fiscal policy and oil sector performance will be critical in shaping Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory in 2026.
- Global Risks: The unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies remains a major global risk. His sudden policy shifts, particularly in sectors like oil, could impact global markets and, by extension, Nigeria’s current account balance.
- Oil Price Sensitivity: Changes in the global political landscape and trade policies could influence oil prices, which are crucial to Nigeria’s economic stability.
The analysts concludes that while domestic reforms are strengthening internal economic mechanisms. Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability is increasingly tied to external political and commodity market developments.
