As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general election, political calculations have intensified, alliances are being tested, and ambitions are colliding. Amid this familiar pre-election realignment, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has emerged as the platform around which key opposition figures appear to be converging in a bid to unseat President Bola Tinubu.
On paper, the ADC boasts an impressive lineup: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, ex-Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai. Individually, these are political heavyweights with national profiles. Collectively, they represent a formidable opposition force on the surface level. However, this concentration of ambition may prove to be the party’s greatest weakness.
The central challenge confronting the ADC is not a lack of political relevance, but the absence of internal consensus. The party risks becoming a battlefield of competing presidential aspirations rather than a disciplined vehicle for electoral victory. Since Peter Obi’s alignment with the ADC, visible cracks have appeared between his support base and that of Atiku Abubakar. The Obidient movement insists that Obi’s popularity among young voters and urban centres makes him the most viable candidate. Atiku’s supporters, on the other hand, argue that Obi lacks the nationwide structure, elite alliances, and electoral experience required to win a Nigerian presidential election.
These disagreements are not trivial. Nigerian elections are won not merely on popularity, but on a delicate balance of regional spread, political structures, elite consensus, and strategic mobilisation. While Obi commands enthusiasm in parts of the South and among younger voters, Atiku retains deep-rooted networks across the North. Meanwhile, Amaechi has been quietly working to rebuild bridges in northern political circles, and El-Rufai remains influential among policy elites and party strategists. Without a deliberate effort to harmonise these strengths, the ADC risks fragmenting its own base before the campaign even begins.
This concern was aptly captured by former presidential adviser Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who recently urged Atiku Abubakar to reconsider another presidential run and instead assume the role of a kingmaker. According to him, Atiku’s decision to step aside could stabilise the party and prevent an implosion. His intervention underscores a deeper truth: an opposition coalition that cannot resolve its leadership question early will struggle to confront the enormous advantages of incumbency.
History offers useful lessons. The All Progressives Congress (APC) succeeded in 2015 not because it lacked ambition, but because its leaders subordinated personal interests to a collective goal. The APC then read the political climate and settled for a candidate who is most sellable and most credible. Aspirants made concessions, blocs were carefully balanced, and the party presented a single, disciplined front against an incumbent president. By contrast, opposition efforts in subsequent elections failed largely because of disunity, parallel ambitions, and last-minute betrayals.
If the ADC is serious about winning in 2027, it must internalise this lesson. Consensus is not optional; it is existential. The party must develop a transparent and credible mechanism for selecting a candidate—whether through zoning, negotiated compromise, or a genuinely unifying primary process. More importantly, all aspirants must commit in advance to supporting whoever emerges, without equivocation.
Beyond candidate selection, the ADC must articulate a coherent national vision that goes beyond personalities. Nigerians are increasingly disillusioned with political recycling and elite power struggles. What voters seek is a viable alternative—one that speaks to economic hardship, governance failures, insecurity, and youth unemployment. A divided opposition sends the opposite message: that power, not policy, remains the primary motivation.
While every aspirant has a constitutional right to seek the presidency, political parties exist to win elections. The ADC must therefore prioritise electability, credibility, and national appeal over sentiment and personal ambition. A candidate who cannot galvanise broad support across regions, religions, and age groups will hand the APC an easy victory—possibly before noon on election day.
Time is no longer a luxury. The ADC stands at a crossroads: it can either become the long-awaited rallying point for a serious opposition or collapse under the weight of unchecked ambition. If the party hopes to be taken seriously by Nigerians yearning for an alternative, it must act decisively—and act now.
