Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation magazine and a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), says Atiku Abubakar could defeat both President Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi in the 2027 presidential election if he secures the bulk of northern votes and performs strongly in the south.
Momodu spoke during an interview on Rufai Oseni’s BlackBox podcast.
‘Obi will dominate the South-East’
According to Momodu, Obi remains the strongest candidate in the south-east.
He, however, argued that Obi’s dominance in the region would make it difficult for Tinubu to build a broad coalition across southern Nigeria.
“As usual, our brother Peter will dominate the south-east,” he said.
“The city boys are going to find it very difficult to make any appreciable inroad into the south-east.”
Momodu also predicted a split in votes across the South-South.
“In the south-south, they are all going to split it,” he said.
“Maybe Peter will have an edge. He might get 30 or 40 percent, while the others get 25 percent each.”
‘Atiku will compete favourably in the south’
Furthermore, Momodu projected that Tinubu would retain an advantage in the south-west.
However, he said Atiku would likely finish ahead of Obi in the region.
“In the south-west, Atiku will probably come second to Tinubu, while Peter will come third,” he said.
The media entrepreneur argued that Atiku’s strongest path to victory lies in the north.
“If he takes the majority of the north, as I predicted and projected, and is able to compete favourably down south, it’s over for Tinubu and Peter,” he said.
‘Atiku could win up to 26 states’
Meanwhile, Momodu said Atiku could secure the constitutional spread required to win the presidency.
He projected that the former vice-president could obtain at least 25 percent of the votes in more than two-thirds of the states.
“He will get a minimum of 25 or 26 states,” he said.
“Once he can meet that target of 25 percent in the required states, he will win the majority of the states in the north, and that’s where the votes are.”
‘Tinubu has lost support’
Momodu also claimed that Tinubu no longer enjoys the level of support that helped him win the 2023 election.
According to him, the president benefited from significant backing in parts of northern Nigeria during the last election.
“Last time he won because he was able to get support from the north,” he said.
“Now he doesn’t have that support, and he doesn’t have it in the south.”
He further argued that opposition to Tinubu has grown since he assumed office.
“The hatred for Tinubu is unprecedented,” Momodu said.
“Even people within his own party are opposed to him right now.”
