Nigeria’s elections often come with tension, violence and fierce political battles. However, the events surrounding the August 15 governorship election in Osun State should concern everyone who cares about the country’s democracy.
The signs were troubling even before voters went to the polls. The Kimpact Development Initiative recorded about 73 election-related violent incidents, which resulted in 29 deaths, in its pre-election security assessment. The police and Governor Ademola Adeleke also reported at least 30 politically motivated killings before the election. Such violence has no place in a democratic society.
Political tension raised fears before the poll
The crisis over Osun’s local governments further worsened the situation. A Federal High Court had earlier removed the local government chairmen elected under the All Progressives Congress in 2022. Osun later held fresh local government elections in February 2025. However, the sacked APC officials forcefully returned to the secretariats. The development created rival claims to office and fuelled further tension across the state.
The dispute also affected the release of statutory federal allocations to the local governments. The funds, estimated at N230 billion as of February, were initially withheld in 2025. State officials later alleged that the money went into accounts controlled by APC local government officials.
Then, just 10 days before the governorship election, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission froze one of the Osun State Government’s accounts. The commission said the action formed part of an investigation into alleged mismanagement of state funds.
President Bola Tinubu eventually intervened, after which the EFCC lifted the restriction. Coming so close to an election, however, the development raised fresh concerns about the use of federal institutions in political contests.
Federal presence added to the tension
The political atmosphere became even more tense on the eve of the election. Several APC governors, ministers, federal lawmakers and national party leaders travelled to Osun to support the party’s candidate. Their presence was widely seen as undue interference and intimidation. It also created an atmosphere of fear in a state already struggling with political tension.
Former President Goodluck Jonathan was right to advise the visiting governors to focus on governance in their own states rather than becoming involved in the Osun contest. Election Day itself brought more concerns. There were reports of ballot box snatching and attacks around voting cubicles. Some polling units consequently had their results cancelled.
Election observers also raised concerns about vote-buying and voter interference. They further pointed to overcrowding and the slow deployment of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System devices at some polling stations.
Voters resisted political pressure
Despite these problems, Osun voters showed considerable determination to participate. Of the 2,339,233 registered voters, 1,010,684 were accredited. That represented a turnout of 43.20 per cent. The figure was slightly higher than the 42.37 per cent recorded in the 2022 governorship election. It was also better than the roughly 27 per cent turnout recorded in the 2023 presidential election.
INEC, for its part, deserves credit for its performance. The BVAS worked in most polling units, while results reached the INEC Result Viewing portal on time. The voters also deserve commendation. Despite the violence and political pressure around them, many still came out to exercise their constitutional right.
At the end of the contest, Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party won 19 of the 30 local government areas with 511,067 votes. Bola Oyebamiji of the APC won the remaining 11 local government areas with 444,815 votes.
Osun offers a warning ahead of 2027
The outcome has shown that credible elections remain possible in Nigeria. More importantly, however, Osun has offered an early warning about the dangers that could confront the 2027 general elections. The stakes in a presidential election are far higher than those in a state governorship contest. The political interests involved will be greater, and the temptation to deploy state power will be stronger.
That is why Nigerians must begin preparing now. Citizens must not merely turn up to vote. They must also protect the integrity of their votes and demand that electoral institutions do the same. Some voters may accept money from desperate politicians. But collecting such money should not determine how they vote. Their ballots should reflect their convictions and their judgment of the candidates.
Political parties must also abandon the idea that federal power should determine the outcome of state elections. Elections should be won through public trust, strong candidates, good campaigns and credible records of service. Performance, not federal might, should determine who returns to office.
INEC and judiciary must learn from Osun
INEC must use the lessons from Osun to strengthen its systems before 2027. The commission should update its electoral and cybersecurity infrastructure and ensure that BVAS and IReV can withstand technical failures and other disruptions. The judiciary also has an important role to play. Pre-election disputes must receive timely and impartial attention. Courts must not allow unresolved legal battles to create confusion or undermine the electoral process.
Most importantly, those who promote political violence must face consequences. Politicians and their supporters should understand that elections are not battles to be won at all costs. The Osun election may therefore be a peek into 2027. It has shown both the dangers and the possibilities ahead.
Nigeria can conduct credible elections, but that outcome will not happen by accident. Voters, INEC, political parties, security agencies and the judiciary must all play their part.
The country cannot afford to repeat the violence, intimidation and institutional controversies witnessed in Osun. The 2027 elections should strengthen Nigeria’s democracy, not become another test of how much abuse it can survive.
Read also: INEC adopts Osun election as benchmark for 2027 — Amupitan
