With just days to the Osun State governorship election, the political battle between Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, has entered a critical stage.
The contest has become more unpredictable following the movement of several influential PDP figures into the APC camp. Among them are former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, former Secretary to the State Government Fatai Akinbade, former PDP National Vice Chairman Tajudeen Oladipo and former Senator Olasunkanmi Akinlabi.
Their departure has raised questions about Adeleke’s grassroots strength and whether the APC can reproduce the political realignment that helped Rauf Aregbesola defeat the PDP in 2014.
PDP loses key political figures
Oyinlola and other former PDP leaders have openly backed Oyebamiji. Oyinlola accused Adeleke of failing to deliver on his campaign promises and urged voters to support the APC candidate.
Oyebamiji has responded by presenting his seven-point agenda, which focuses on education, healthcare, agriculture, youth and women empowerment, industrialisation and wealth creation. He has also promised greater transparency and equal distribution of government resources across the state. The defections could prove important because many of the affected politicians have strong networks across different parts of Osun.
Is 2014 repeating itself?
The current political alignment has drawn comparisons with the 2014 election. That year, the PDP suffered a major setback after some of its influential figures abandoned Iyiola Omisore and supported Aregbesola. The APC is now hoping that history will repeat itself.
Oyebamiji has received the backing of several former governors and prominent political figures. The APC has also welcomed back members of the Blue Movement, a group linked to former Governor Rauf Aregbesola. However, the comparison with 2014 may not tell the whole story. Elections are ultimately decided by votes, and the strength of each party’s grassroots organisation will be crucial.
APC builds momentum
The APC has continued to consolidate its support base ahead of the election. The party earlier received Dotun Babayemi, a former PDP governorship aspirant, and his supporters. It has also attracted former Aregbesola loyalists who stayed away from the party during the 2022 election.
With Oluwole Oke heading the APC campaign and Senator Francis Fadahunsi playing a major role in Ijesaland, the party appears determined to maximise its regional networks. For Adeleke, the challenge is to hold together the coalition that helped him defeat Adegboyega Oyetola in 2022.
The governor still has the advantage of incumbency and his own political structure. However, the recent defections have changed the balance of the contest. As voters prepare to decide on Saturday, the key question is whether the APC’s growing coalition can translate its political momentum into enough votes to defeat Adeleke.
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