Hurricane Erin Could Become Season’s First Major Atlantic Storm — What You Need to Know
After a quiet start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are finally waking up — and all eyes are on Tropical Storm Erin, which is poised to become the season’s first hurricane, possibly reaching Category 4 strength within days.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Erin intensified on Thursday evening, reaching sustained wind speeds of 70 mph as it churned over the open waters of the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Though still far from land as of Friday morning, Erin is tracking west-northwest and expected to continue strengthening as it moves closer to the Caribbean region.
Tropical storm to Category 4 hurricane
Meteorologists believe Erin has strong potential to become a major hurricane, possibly reaching Category 3 or 4 intensity by Sunday. If that happens, it would be the first major hurricane (defined as Category 3 or above) of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Several factors are fueling Erin’s rapid intensification. Chief among them is the exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, which are significantly above average for this time of year. While not quite at the record-setting levels seen in 2023 and 2024, the ocean heat content is still unusually high due to ongoing global warming and fossil fuel-driven climate change — a key ingredient for hurricane development.
Erin storm path forecast: Who’s at Risk?
Erin is forecast to pass north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. While direct landfall on these Caribbean islands is not currently expected, tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward Islands as a precaution.
Forecasters stress that the storm’s track is not yet set in stone. If Erin deviates from its current path — even slightly — it could bring strong winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents to the Caribbean islands, particularly in the northeast.
As Erin continues its west-northwest journey, it’s expected to make a gradual turn northward early next week. It’s still too early to tell whether the storm will pose a direct threat to Bermuda or the eastern United States, but hazardous surf conditions and rip currents are likely along portions of the U.S. East Coast, even if Erin stays offshore.
A Late Start for the Season’s First Hurricane
Historically, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season forms around August 11. By comparison, Erin is slightly behind schedule. In contrast, by this point last year, the Atlantic had already experienced three hurricanes — Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto — highlighting just how unusually quiet the 2025 season has been so far.
Prior to Erin, four other named systems — Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter — formed in the Atlantic this year, but none developed into hurricanes. Erin could break that streak and mark the true beginning of peak hurricane season, which typically runs from mid-August through mid-October.
Another System Brewing, Gulf of Mexico tropical depression
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a separate tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This area of showers and thunderstorms has a medium chance of development into a tropical depression before the weekend.
Forecasters say the system has a narrow window of opportunity to organize while it moves over extremely warm waters in the Gulf before likely making landfall in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by Friday night.
Key Takeaways for Hurricane Season Preparedness
- Erin is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, with a possible peak at Category 4 strength.
- The storm could impact northeastern Caribbean islands with gusty winds, rain, and rough surf.
- Coastal areas of the U.S. East Coast should prepare for rip currents and high surf next week, even if the storm doesn’t make landfall.
- Another potential tropical depression is forming in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly affecting Mexico or Texas by the weekend.
- Warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters, fueled by climate change, are likely to result in an above-average hurricane season.
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