Political analyst Henry Shield has claimed that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may struggle to match his 2023 electoral performance in the 2027 presidential election.
Shield made the claim during an interview on Vanguard’s Politics Hub while discussing Tinubu’s chances of securing a second term.
According to the political analyst, his assessment is based on market consultations, surveys and interactions with Nigerians across different parts of the country.
“We do market consultation, market surveys, we do street surveys. We go out and we engage with the people, and I can tell you, sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” Shield said.
Shield challenges media to conduct survey
Meanwhile, Shield challenged media organisations and other stakeholders to independently test his claim through an opinion survey.
He argued that a survey involving 1,000 Nigerians would provide a clearer picture of public opinion ahead of the 2027 election.
“Please don’t take my word. You are a media house. Engage people to do this for the sake of our democracy, sample just 1,000. Don’t do 1,001. Don’t do the other 9,999. Exactly 1,000,” he said.
He repeated his prediction, insisting that most respondents in such a sample would reject Tinubu at the polls.
“Sample 1,000 opinions today in Nigeria, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” he added.
However, Shield did not cite any published nationwide opinion poll to support the figure.
Instead, he based his assessment on the consultations and surveys he said he had conducted.
Tinubu won 8.79 million votes in 2023
In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu won 8,794,726 votes, representing 36.61 per cent of the total votes cast.
The Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Atiku Abubakar, came second with 6,984,520 votes, or 29.07 per cent.
Meanwhile, Labour Party candidate Peter Obi finished third with 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40 per cent.
Although the three politicians remain prominent figures ahead of 2027, their political positions have changed since the last presidential election.
For instance, Atiku has joined the African Democratic Congress, while Obi has left the Labour Party for the Nigerian Democratic Congress.
2027 election preparations gather pace
Meanwhile, political parties and potential presidential candidates have stepped up preparations for the 2027 general election.
Tinubu is seeking another term under the All Progressives Congress, while opposition parties are working to build stronger alliances ahead of the poll.
However, Shield’s prediction remains his personal assessment rather than an established measure of current voter preference.
No independent nationwide survey was cited to support his claim that 900 out of every 1,000 Nigerians would reject Tinubu in 2027.
Therefore, the figure should be viewed as an opinion expressed by the political analyst and not as a verified polling result.
