WMO Predicts Continued Rise in Global Heat
The World Meteorological Organization has warned that global temperatures will likely remain at or near record levels over the next five years.
The agency released the warning on Thursday as parts of western Europe experienced extreme heat conditions.
According to the report, the world could witness a new hottest year before 2031.
The WMO stated that the 11 hottest years ever recorded all occurred after 2015.
Global Warming Threshold Faces Increased Risk
The climate agency said there is a 75 per cent chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
That benchmark refers to temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900 before large-scale industrial emissions intensified climate change.
The report also revealed a 91 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will temporarily cross the 1.5°C threshold.
However, the WMO noted that scientists still consider it highly unlikely for temperatures to exceed 2°C during that period.
El Nino Could Push Temperatures Higher
The report identified a possible El Nino event at the end of 2026 as a major factor that could increase temperatures further.
Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO Global Annual-to-Decadal Update, said the weather pattern may contribute to another record-breaking year in 2027.
The last El Nino event helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record.
It also contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year ever recorded at around 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels.
El Nino typically causes warmer ocean temperatures and disrupts global rainfall and weather systems.
Paris Climate Goals Under Pressure
The warning has renewed concerns about the goals of the Paris Agreement.
World leaders adopted the agreement in 2015 to limit long-term global warming to below 2°C and preferably under 1.5°C.
According to the WMO, annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 could range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial averages.
Scientists explained that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C limit do not automatically mean the long-term climate target has failed.
However, they warned that such breaches may happen more frequently in the future.
Arctic Region Faces Stronger Warming
The report also highlighted growing concerns about the Arctic.
It predicted that Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters could rise 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average.
That figure stands more than three times higher than the projected global average increase.
Meanwhile, climate experts forecast wetter conditions across the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia.
In contrast, the Amazon region may experience drier conditions.
Scientists Warn of Rising Food and Security Risks
The WMO warned that rising temperatures could worsen climate-related challenges worldwide.
Extreme heat, droughts, flooding, and shifting rainfall patterns may place greater pressure on food production, water supply, and public health.
Scientists also fear that continued warming could increase risks for vulnerable regions already struggling with poverty and climate shocks.
The report combined climate forecasts from 13 international scientific institutes and Britain’s Met Office.
