The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a serious warning about ongoing global fuel shortages. Particularly for diesel and jet fuel, which are expected to persist for the foreseeable future.
Although a tentative ceasefire has been announced between the United States and Iran. The critical Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to major energy shipments. This disruption, according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, is leaving lasting “scars” on the global economy.
Under normal circumstances, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 25% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. However, current figures show that less than 10% of pre-conflict volumes are passing through the waterway.
While Pakistan brokered a two-week truce on April 7, the maritime route remains a chokepoint. Reports indicate that Iranian authorities are only allowing bulk carriers with dry cargo to pass through.
World Economic Outlook report
The IMF has announced plans to revise its 2026 global growth forecast downward in its upcoming World Economic Outlook report. Before the conflict, the IMF projected a 3.3% growth rate for 2026. However, Georgieva stated that “even our most hopeful scenario now involves a growth downgrade.”
The conflict has already caused a sharp drop in global energy supplies, with oil down by an estimated 13% and LNG by 20%. This supply shock is driving inflation higher and putting additional strain on global supply chains.
To support the economies most affected by the crisis. The IMF has pledged up to $50 billion in emergency financial assistance. Many energy-importing nations, particularly those with limited fiscal reserves. Bave already requested balance-of-payments support to cope with the surge in energy costs.
Energy markets remain highly volatile. On Friday, Brent crude prices were around $95.86 per barrel, down from a conflict peak of $120 but still significantly higher than pre-war levels. In the UK, North Sea oil prices recently hit record highs. With Forties Blend nearing $147 per barrel as uncertainty in the Middle East continues to rattle markets.
Georgieva warned that even if a permanent peace agreement is reached, a “neat and clean return to the status quo” is unlikely.
Beyond energy, the conflict is also worsening food security for an estimated 45 million additional people. Rising fertilizer costs and transport disruptions are exacerbating the crisis. The IMF has urged governments to adopt defensive measures, such as strengthening fiscal buffers and allowing currency flexibility, to navigate these challenges.
