Daniel Bwala, special assistant to President Bola Tinubu on policy communication, says Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Party (NDC), could secure more votes than former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in the 2027 presidential election.
Speaking in a recent interview with Symfoni Media, Bwala argued that Atiku’s political influence has diminished significantly compared to previous election cycles.
According to him, the 2023 presidential election represented the peak of Atiku’s electoral strength.
“The 2023 election was the biggest opportunity that Atiku had in his life politically,” he said.
Bwala noted that Atiku has never historically depended on overwhelming support from northern Nigeria, despite widespread perceptions to the contrary.
“Atiku has this nationalistic view, so his votes are spread across the nation,” he said.
“In 2023, he lost states in the north-east. So we’re speaking to facts, figures and numbers, not conjecture.”
The presidential aide argued that several factors that worked in Atiku’s favour in 2023 are no longer present ahead of the 2027 contest.
He said many governors, lawmakers and political heavyweights who previously supported the former vice-president are no longer aligned with him.
“Where is Atiku’s governor and structure?” he asked.
“All the state governors that delivered for him are not with him.”
THE 2023 DYNAMICS
Bwala also attributed Atiku’s 2023 performance to political and religious sentiments surrounding the transition from former President Muhammadu Buhari to a new administration.
“There were a lot of factors,” he said.
“Business communities and individuals felt that since a Fulani man would hand over to Atiku again, that was why he got what he got.”
The presidential aide said his concern is that Obi could outperform Atiku at the polls.
“I have one fear,” he said.
“Peter Obi might defeat him in terms of pecking. That is my fear.”
Bwala added that an even worse outcome for the former vice-president would be finishing behind multiple candidates in the election.
“The other fear is that he might even come third,” he said.
“And if that happens, what will be his legacy as a politician?”
He urged Atiku to support President Bola Tinubu instead of pursuing another presidential bid.
“Come to your friend, Bola Tinubu, sit with him, throw your support behind him,” he said.
