Middle East Conflict Pushes Food Costs Higher
Global food prices rose by five per cent within two months after the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new World Bank analysis.
The disruption followed the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February 2026.
As a result, global food prices reached their highest level since January 2024.
The World Bank said oils and meals drove most of the increase, while grains recorded smaller gains.
Oils and Meals Lead Price Surge
According to the report, oils and meals prices climbed by 10 per cent during the period.
Higher crude oil prices and expanded biofuel blending mandates contributed to the sharp increase.
The World Bank identified Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States among the markets that expanded biofuel policies.
Soybean oil recorded one of the biggest increases.
Its price rose 16 per cent in the first quarter and 25 per cent year-on-year.
The bank linked the surge to stronger renewable diesel demand and fresh biofuel targets in the United States.
Palm oil and soybean prices also increased due to stronger biodiesel demand and renewed Chinese purchases.
However, the bank noted that strong edible oil supplies helped limit further spikes.
Grain Prices Rise More Slowly
Grain prices increased by three per cent over the same period.
The World Bank attributed the moderate rise to ample global grain supplies.
Even so, wheat prices gained nine per cent during the quarter, while maize rose four per cent.
Drought concerns and rising production costs contributed to the increases.
Despite the pressure, the bank described the overall market response as relatively contained.
World Bank Compares Crisis to 2022 Ukraine War
The World Bank compared the current situation with the early phase of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
During that crisis, global food prices jumped 15 per cent within two months.
That figure was nearly three times higher than the current increase.
According to the bank, strong grain and oilseed supplies helped cushion the latest shock.
It also noted that many farmers in the Northern Hemisphere secured fertiliser supplies before the conflict began.
Import-Dependent Countries Face Growing Pressure
Food inflation worsened in several import-dependent regions after the Strait of Hormuz closure.
The World Bank highlighted the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan as some of the hardest-hit areas.
Before the conflict, food inflation across the region remained relatively stable.
However, supply disruptions quickly pushed prices higher in Gulf economies.
Iran recorded some of the most severe inflation pressures.
The report said food inflation in the country already stood at 98 per cent in February 2026.
In addition, food inflation also accelerated in Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia.
Hunger Risks May Increase
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected moderate food price increases for the rest of 2026.
The bank expects grain prices to rise by two per cent, while oils and meals may increase by four per cent.
Overall food prices could climb by around 2.5 per cent this year.
However, the organisation warned that risks remain heavily tilted upward.
It said prolonged supply disruptions or persistently high energy prices could worsen the situation.
Meanwhile, the United Nations World Food Programme estimated that up to 45 million more people could face acute hunger in 2026 if disruptions continue.
More than half of the affected population could come from Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENAAP region.
